When AI Starts Draining the Planet
"No data centres near my home!" As the US midterm elections approach, data centres, highly unpopular with the public, are creating a rare point of consensus between Republican and Democratic candidates. Indeed, 70% of Americans reportedly oppose the construction of a data centre in their local area. The paradox is striking, at a time when the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is underway and few can now imagine life without an agent such as ChatGPT.
This wave is so powerful that it is pushing concerns about rising debt in developed countries into the background, while contributing as much as 25% of US GDP growth — an unprecedented level. It is also accompanied by a steep increase in AI-related spending, including software, IT, R&D and data centres, which now represents 8% of US GDP.
Huge water-related risks
In practical terms, the Dallas Federal Reserve estimates that the rise of data centres could push electricity costs up by 20% to 50% by 2028. This, in turn, creates water-related risks, as power plants require billions of litres of water for cooling. Nuclear power plants add another layer of concern: they can warm rivers when they use water to cool their equipment and dissipate the heat and may be forced to reduce output or shut down when temperatures become too high, as was again the case in Europe this summer.
2026 is already emerging as a record-breaking year for global heat. According to Copernicus, the European Earth observation programme, humans have likely not experienced temperatures this high for at least 100,000 years.
Technology to the rescue
Nevertheless, the worst is never certain, and technological innovation can bring solutions. One example is a new French start-up, which was present this year at VivaTech in Paris and unveiled a groundbreaking process aimed at developing biological data centres using synthetic DNA, thereby making it possible to significantly reduce, if not eliminate, the challenges linked to electricity and water consumption. This could represent a genuine paradigm shift, especially when compared with major US data centre projects such as Stratos, which is expected to cover 160 km², the equivalent of the size of the Principality of Liechtenstein.
Inflationary pressure
In a complex environment marked by geopolitical tensions, notably around the Strait of Hormuz, high debt levels in developed countries, doubts over central bank credibility, uncertainty linked to key electoral events such as the US midterm elections or next year's French presidential election, and of course natural disasters linked to global warming, inflationary pressures remain tilted to the upside, prompting central banks to keep rates unchanged or even raise them.
Our scenario
In this context, we do not expect a sustained cycle of rate hikes from the major central banks, and we anticipate inflation normalising next year. We remain constructive on equities and believe the environment continues to offer attractive opportunities. More than ever, you can count on our team of experts to support you.
This month, we take a closer look at this topic in our special report on AI's environmental footprint.
