Commissioned Research

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29 July 2022, Luuk van Beek
HY results in line with our estimates
  • H1 revenues in line, with 8.3% organic growth. Margins still impacted by additional investments in company’s positioning and future growth, as expected.
  • Guidance reiterated despite more cautious outlook on customer confidence.
  • Headcount growth is positive.
Ctac: HY results in line with our estimates
29.07.2022 | 9 pages
01 July 2022, Laura Roba
Good commercial progress but delay in clinical pipeline
  • TheraVet provides an H1 22 operational update ahead of the half year financial results to be published in September.
  • Key commercial milestones achieved during the period with the addition of three distribution agreements for BIOCERA-VET, the expansion of the bone substitutes portfolio with BIOCERA-VET SmartGraft and the commercial launch of the whole BIOCERA-VET line in Belgium, France, The Netherlands, Spain, UK & Ireland and the US.
  • EU pivotal study for VISCO-VET in canine osteoarthritis to be delayed by several months due to slower than expected enrollment as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic.
TheraVet: Good commercial progress but delay in clinical pipeline
01.07.2022 | 8 pages
30 June 2022, Laura Roba
BIOCERA-VET launched in the US
  • TheraVet announced the commercial launch of BIOCERA-VET in the US which was one of the key catalysts expected in 2022
  • Launch timing is in line with previous communication
  • Texas, Florida and Carolinas will be targeted first with commercial launch in the rest of the US expected in H2 22
TheraVet: BIOCERA-VET launched in the US
30.06.2022 | 5 pages
10 June 2022, Luuk van Beek
Sharpening focus on most promising segments
  • With the divestment of Fit4Woco, the acquisition of Technology2Enjoy, the launch of a new security offering and the ‘ignite’ change program, Ctac is setting clear steps to optimize its positioning for future revenue and profit growth.
  • We update our valuation range from EUR 5.00-6.80 to EUR 4.90-7.50 based on updated historical valuation, peer group analysis and DCF. This corresponds with 29-97% upside.
  • We expect the ongoing promising organic growth in combination with the first benefits from the current investments to drive the share price. Profit growth can further be accelerated through acquisitions, bringing the revenue target of EUR 150m with an EBIT-margin of at least 8% within reach.
Ctac: Sharpening focus on most promising segments
10.06.2022 | 19 pages
02 June 2022, Laura Roba
Commercial launch of additional BIOCERA-VET products
  • Commercial launch of additional BIOCERA-VET products recently added to the portfolio.
  • Products will be available in Belgium, France, Netherlands, UK, Ireland and Spain.
  • Distribution will be ensured by wholesalers and distributors as well as through a new company webshop.
TheraVet: Commercial launch of additional BIOCERA-VET products
02.06.2022 | 4 pages
18 May 2022, Inna Maslova
Q1 Results
  • Net operating income landed at EUR 95m, up 32% YoY on the back of lower rent concessions granted. down 0.3% YoY. On the cost side, the company saw an increase of 47% YoY in property operating expenses due to high inflation and increasing energy costs.
  • Footfall remained below the pre-Covid levels in 2019 while tenant sales were in line or even above the 2019 levels thanks to a larger average basket size.
  • 2022 distributable earnings guidance reiterated to be at least +24% YoY.
  • Two-step migration from the Isle of Man to the Netherlands (via Luxembourg) has been approved by the shareholders, with completion of the process expected by September 2022.
  • We will update our estimates to reflect the results, reiterating our target valuation range for the time being.
NEPI Rockcastle: Q1 results
18.05.2022 | 8 pages
10 May 2022, Laura Roba
New distribution agreement for BIOCERA-VET
  • TheraVet signed a new distribution agreement for BIOCERA-VET
  • The agreement covers the UK and Ireland
  • No financial details disclosed
TheraVet: New distribution agreement for BIOCERA-VET
10.05.2022 | 4 pages
05 May 2022, Joren Van Aken
Streamlining of portfolio continues
Luxempart announced that it will divest its 60% stake in eduPRO. eduPRO a leading Austrian-German education group active in adolescent and adult-training programmes.
  • This divestment is in line with Luxempart’s strategy to further streamline its portfolio towards 20 lines by 2023 (33 at the end of 2021). In the annual report, Luxempart had already mentioned that several exit processes were ongoing. Most likely, eduPRO was one of them.
  • Luxempart will generate a high money multiple and an IRR significantly exceeding its long-term objectives (>12-15%). No further financial details were disclosed.
  • Despite there not being any additional financial information, we believe Luxempart will have received an interesting multiple for the stake. On one hand because it is a majority stake but also because private markets have proven to be resilient. Even considering the current volatile environment related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, multiples have remained rather high in the private segment which has become significantly more expensive than public markets. We therefore believe that this divestment will have been at an attractive valuation.

Luxempart: Streamlining of portfolio continues
05.05.2022 | 5 pages
29 April 2022, Luuk van Beek
Investing in improved strategic positioning
  • Q1 revenues in line with 6% organic growth, profitability temporarily depressed by investments in new offering and internal improvements
  • Guidance reiterated despite more uncertain environment
  • Future positioning is taking shape, giving confidence in upside potential
Ctac: Investing in improved strategic positioning
29.04.2022 | 8 pages
28 April 2022, Joren Van Aken
2021: a year of transformation
  • A year of investing
    Investments in the direct investments portfolio amounted to EUR 206m, of which a sizeable stake of EUR 87m in Evariste (see our previous report on this acquisition here). The Group also added to its stake in SNP and Technotrans. In investment funds, new commitments amounted to EUR 98m. Both direct investments as investment funds were therefore above their annual target of EUR 150m and EUR 75m respectively. Going forward, Luxempart will aim to invest on average EUR 50m per ticket in order to have a meaningful impact on the NAV. At the same time, management also requires that all portfolio companies, regardless of the stake Luxempart has, grant Luxempart adequate governance rights. Luxempart wants to be an active partner in the companies it owns which is significantly different from the more passive approach we often see at other investment companies.
  • A year of streamlining
    While investing significantly in existing companies like SNP and Technotrans, the Group also continued its streamlining strategy bringing the amount of portfolio lines from 43 to 33. This was of course supported by the takeover offers on Zooplus and Schaltbau. The streamlining will continue in 2022 as there are a few exit processes still ongoing. By the end of 2023, the company wants to have a portfolio of ~20 companies.
  • A year of ESG
    Luxempart also increased its focus on ESG as the company reported a detailed Sustainability Report which the company intends to expand in the coming years. This trend is in line with what we have seen at other investment companies like Sofina for example. This offers the possibility of getting an attractive ESG rating and as a result being included in ESG funds or trackers.
Luxempart: 2021: A year of transformation
28.04.2022 | 8 pages
06 April 2022, Laura Roba
Progressing in the right direction
  • TheraVet published its FY21 results. Overall, encouraging results, broadly in line with our estimates. Revenues are still early stage but progressing in the right direction. Cash position stood at EUR 5.63m end of December 2021, providing runway until 2023e.
  • Contact with management has learnt that there might be some delays in the publication of interim results from the EU confirmatory study of VISCO-VET in canine osteoarthritis, depending on the evolution of the situation in Eastern Europe and the impact on Poland.
TheraVet: Progressing in the right direction
06.04.2022 | 8 pages
25 March 2022, Joren Van Aken
FY21 results: Strategic ambitions bearing fruit
  • NAV strongly above expectations: NAV came in at EUR 2,169m or EUR 107.8 p/s vs. our estimate of EUR 101.4 p/s. Beat is mainly coming from capital gains vs. last reported NAV stemming from 8 divestments in 2021, and significant improvement in underlying portfolio performance.
  • Dividend +12.5% showing confidence and resilience: Luxempart proposed a dividend of EUR 1.8 p/s (FY20: EUR 1.6 p/s) providing a yield of 2.4%. This was above our estimate of EUR 1.73 which in our view truly underlines the confidence management has in its portfolio going forward despite the current volatile environment. Over the medium term, management has the ambition to grow the dividend at a CAGR of ~10%.
  • Plenty of cash to continue to apply strategic objectives: At the end of the year, Luxempart held EUR 344m of cash representing around 15.9% of their NAV. This provides the company plenty of flexibility to continue to apply its strategic objectives which were set out a year ago.
We estimate today’s NAV to be EUR 105.9 p/s. This implies a discount of 30%. While being already significantly lower than the ~40% when we first initiated coverage, there is still room for improvement. We use 15% as our target discount as we believe there remains a mismatch between the strong returns the company has delivered and its discount. After applying both a discount of 30% and our target discount of 15%, we arrive at our new valuation range of EUR 79-96 per share vs. EUR 75-92 before. This implies a respective upside of 6.8% to 29.7%.
Luxempart: FY21 results: Strategic ambitions bearing fruit
25.03.2022 | 6 pages
21 March 2022, Luuk van Beek
Divestment software for housing corporations
  • Ctac will divest its software product for housing corporations, which generated annual revenues of some EUR 1.5m
  • We have adjusted our revenue estimates to reflect the transaction, but this has a negligible impact on our profit and cash flow estimates
Ctac: Divestment software for housing corporations
21.03.2022 | 8 pages
15 March 2022, Laura Roba
BIOCERA-VET launched in the UK and Ireland
  • TheraVet announced the commercial launch of BIOCERA-VET in the UK and Ireland.
  • UK is the third largest EU market.
TheraVet: BIOCERA-VET launched in the UK and Ireland
15.03.2022 | 7 pages
09 March 2022, Luuk van Beek
Plastic Pallet Powerhouse
Benefiting from unique offering in pallets from recycled plastic
  • Cabka has unique technology to reuse waste plastic for the production of plastic pallets and large containers. Its circular and recycled products have lower cost of ownership and superior characteristics in use than competing wooden pallets. We therefore expect them to win market share. Cabka can accelerate this growth by expanding its product range and geographic coverage. It can also do this through acquisitions thanks to its strong balance sheet.
  • Its technology gives it a competitive advantage in the sourcing of raw materials, especially now that prices for high grades of virgin and recycled plastic are rising rapidly. On top of this, growing revenues will drive up utilization rates, while automation projects will reduce costs, thus creating operating leverage.
  • 2022 will be affected by a delay in passing on higher input prices, but we expect EBITDA growth to be well into the double digits from 2023 on.
Target valuation EUR 11-15.5 p/s based on DCF and peers
We set a target valuation range of EUR 11-15.5 p/s, based on DCF and peer group valuation. We see the following drivers for an increase in Cabka’s share price:
  • Confirmation of higher revenue growth. We expect that Cabka can realize organic revenue growth at the high end or above its high single digit target in the next few years, thanks to strong demand and rising prices. That should create operating leverage and thus allow the company to realize double-digit EPS growth from 2023 on.
  • Acquisitions. Acquisitions of complementary companies can be an effective way to accelerate Cabka’s growth. They can allow the company to quickly expand its geographical coverage, while adding new products to its offering. Alternatively, they may enhance access to plastic waste, reinforcing its competitive advantage in raw material sourcing.
  • Shift to ESG investing. Cabka is a clear frontrunner in circularity. We expect that this will attract the growing group of ESG-investors. However, we also expect non-ESG investors to increasingly value companies that are well prepared for future regulations regarding recycling and sustainability.
Cabka: Plastic Pallet Powerhouse
09.03.2022 | 26 pages
25 February 2022, Luuk van Beek
Better results across the board in 2021
  • 2021 results above expectations on all key metrics, with high organic growth, better EBITDA and strong cash generation
  • Guides for single digit organic growth in 2022 with a 10-12% EBITDA-margin, including the cost of new improvement programs
  • Modest cut in 2022 due to costs of these programs, but mid-term growth outlook remains robust.
Ctac: Better results across the board in 2021
25.02.2022 | 9 pages
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