When geopolitics overshadow the economy
Geopolitical developments are currently so dominant that economic data risks fading into the background. However, this impression is misleading. As my colleagues demonstrate once again in this new edition, economic dynamics remain highly relevant and deserve close attention.
Europe: budget struggles and political division
In Belgium, budget negotiations are progressing slowly, while trade unions watch with suspicion. Meanwhile, the debate over the frozen Russian assets held at Euroclear continues to drag on. In France, the government remains in place despite ongoing unrest, and in the Netherlands, a stable budgetary situation has proven insufficient to prevent a political crisis. At the same time, Europe is reassessing its climate ambitions in light of concerns about purchasing power and competitiveness.
United States: between authoritarianism and institutional chaos
Millions of Americans are protesting against Donald Trump’s increasingly authoritarian stance. While he has recently imposed sanctions on Russia, his presidency continues to be defined by controversial decisions: support for the pro-Trump camp in Argentina, the rise of a family-run cryptocurrency empire, and the gradual dismantling of democratic institutions in the United States. All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of a prolonged federal government shutdown.
China: not tearing down, but building up
While the United States finds itself increasingly gridlocked, China continues to move forward steadily. The upcoming five-year plan reaffirms the priority given to technological and industrial supremacy. Beijing is embracing self-sufficiency while simultaneously strengthening its position within global supply chains.
Economic resilience amid unrest
Despite political unrest, the economic fundamentals remain stable.
In this edition of the Monthly House View, our experts analyze the following topics:
- The state of the U.S. labor market
- The rise in gold prices
- Significant investments in Artificial Intelligence
- And of course, the impact of these elements on our investment strategy and asset allocation within portfolios
